# How to read Blackbox’s campaign estimates and track record URL: https://blackbox.plus/guides/read-campaign-estimates Level 4: Run it as an ad (https://blackbox.plus/guides/run-ads) Updated: 2026-11-02 Time: about 4 minutes You'll end with: You know what a campaign should bring before launching it, and how far to trust that number Do it in Blackbox: https://blackbox.plus/app/plan > See what a campaign should bring before launch, what came in on each check-in day, the verdict on its last day, and how often estimates were right. ## Short answer To read a campaign’s estimate in Blackbox (blackbox.plus), open Plan and click a campaign suggestion or a campaign proposal on the calendar. Its card says what to expect, for example “We expect ~50–91 purchases at $7.69–$13.90 each over 14 days”. The cost per result is your brand’s own recent cost on those channels over the last 30 days, and the range is the middle half of your campaigns’ own costs, so it is worked out from your numbers, not guessed. When you approve, the estimate is locked. On each check-in day the campaign’s item on the calendar shows what came in against what was expected by then, ✓ in range, ↑ above or ↓ below, and on the last day the verdict: beat, met or missed the estimate. Plan’s Results tab counts how often estimates landed in range, and new suggestions say so once five campaigns have been checked. ## You'll need - **Campaigns with results in the last 30 days.** At least 5 results and 3 campaigns on a channel, so there is a cost to estimate from. (Guide: https://blackbox.plus/guides/create-facebook-ad-campaign) ## How to read Blackbox’s campaign estimates and track record 1. **Read a suggestion’s estimate.** In **Plan**, click a campaign suggestion on the calendar and read **What to expect**. You'll see: How many results to expect, at what cost each, at New campaign’s suggested starting budget. Starts at: https://blackbox.plus/app/plan ![A campaign suggestion’s What to expect: about 47 to 85 purchases at 8 to 15 dollars each over 14 days, ringed](https://blackbox.plus/guides/read-campaign-estimates/01-suggestion.png) 2. **Read the proposal’s estimate.** Click the campaign’s **Proposal** on its start day. You'll see: The same sentence for your budget and channels, and how your target compares. ![The campaign proposal’s estimate, about 50 to 91 purchases, with the target compared and where the numbers come from, ringed](https://blackbox.plus/guides/read-campaign-estimates/02-proposal.png) 3. **Follow the check-ins.** On a check-in day, read the line under the campaign’s **Check-in**. You'll see: What came in against what was expected by then, such as **✓ 18 vs ~11–20 purchases**. ![The calendar’s day with Cold brew week’s day 3 check-in: a tick, 18 against about 11 to 20 purchases, ringed](https://blackbox.plus/guides/read-campaign-estimates/03-calendar.png) 4. **Open a check-in.** Click the **Check-in** to open its card. You'll see: **Our estimate · locked at approve**, with the expected and actual numbers for that day. ![The check-in card’s estimate, locked at approve: day 3 expected about 11 to 20, came in 18, ringed](https://blackbox.plus/guides/read-campaign-estimates/04-checkin.png) 5. **Read the verdict.** After the last day, click the campaign’s **Decision**. You'll see: Beat, met or missed the estimate, with the cost per result beside it. ![The decision card: missed the estimate, 42 purchases against 50 to 91 expected, each at about 17 dollars, ringed](https://blackbox.plus/guides/read-campaign-estimates/05-verdict.png) 6. **Check the track record.** Click **Results** at the top of Plan. You'll see: How often estimates landed in range, and each campaign as one row, **Results by the last day**. Starts at: https://blackbox.plus/app/plan ![Plan’s Results tab: the track record figures and a new campaign as one row, results by the last day, ringed](https://blackbox.plus/guides/read-campaign-estimates/06-results.png) ## Good to know - The cost per result is the same number the Budget step splits your budget by, so the step’s “purchases expected” and the proposal’s estimate never disagree. - The range is marked Rough until enough of your campaigns have finished and been checked. It is the middle half of your campaigns’ costs, so about half of results should land inside it at first. - A channel without enough history (fewer than 5 results or 3 campaigns in 30 days) is left out of the estimate, and the card says which one and why. - Results are counted the way the check-in card counts them, from the same numbers, so a check-in day never shows two figures. - Conversions keep arriving for up to 7 days after a click on Meta and Google. Until then a check-in shows “late results still coming” and the verdict is a first read. - The estimate assumes the budget you planned. If a campaign spent less, the verdict says how much of the plan it spent. - A Continue keeps the original estimate: the extra days are not estimated. - With no target set, the Budget step shows your recent cost per result and a Use it button. Nothing is filled in until you click it. ## Questions people ask **Is this a forecast from Facebook ads benchmarks?** No. Industry benchmarks average other businesses. Blackbox’s estimate uses only your own campaigns’ cost per result over the last 30 days, and the Results tab shows how often it landed in range for your brand. **The card says No estimate** The channel has too little history to go on. The card names the channel and what it needs; run a campaign there first, or pick a channel with results. **Why is the range so wide?** It is the spread of your own campaigns’ costs. It narrows as your costs get more alike and as checked campaigns show how far estimates were off. **The check-in says late results still coming** The day is over, but the platform can still credit conversions from earlier clicks. The number is final 7 days later. **I don’t see the track record line on suggestions** It shows once 5 of the brand’s new campaigns have been checked. Until then Plan’s Results tab lists them as they finish.