Guide 17 of 17 in Level 4: Run it as an ad
How to read Blackbox’s campaign estimates and track record
To read a campaign’s estimate in Blackbox (blackbox.plus), open Plan and click a campaign suggestion or a campaign proposal on the calendar. Its card says what to expect, for example “We expect ~50–91 purchases at $7.69–$13.90 each over 14 days”. The cost per result is your brand’s own recent cost on those channels over the last 30 days, and the range is the middle half of your campaigns’ own costs, so it is worked out from your numbers, not guessed. When you approve, the estimate is locked. On each check-in day the campaign’s item on the calendar shows what came in against what was expected by then, ✓ in range, ↑ above or ↓ below, and on the last day the verdict: beat, met or missed the estimate. Plan’s Results tab counts how often estimates landed in range, and new suggestions say so once five campaigns have been checked.
- Time
- About 4 minutes 6 steps Updated
- You'll end with
- You know what a campaign should bring before launching it, and how far to trust that number
How to read Blackbox’s campaign estimates and track record
Step 1:Read a suggestion’s estimate
In Plan, click a campaign suggestion on the calendar and read What to expect.
You'll see: How many results to expect, at what cost each, at New campaign’s suggested starting budget.
Open this in BlackboxStep 2:Read the proposal’s estimate
Click the campaign’s Proposal on its start day.
You'll see: The same sentence for your budget and channels, and how your target compares.
Step 3:Follow the check-ins
On a check-in day, read the line under the campaign’s Check-in.
You'll see: What came in against what was expected by then, such as ✓ 18 vs ~11–20 purchases.
Step 4:Open a check-in
Click the Check-in to open its card.
You'll see: Our estimate · locked at approve, with the expected and actual numbers for that day.
Step 5:Read the verdict
After the last day, click the campaign’s Decision.
You'll see: Beat, met or missed the estimate, with the cost per result beside it.
Step 6:Check the track record
Click Results at the top of Plan.
You'll see: How often estimates landed in range, and each campaign as one row, Results by the last day.
Open this in Blackbox
Good to know
- The cost per result is the same number the Budget step splits your budget by, so the step’s “purchases expected” and the proposal’s estimate never disagree.
- The range is marked Rough until enough of your campaigns have finished and been checked. It is the middle half of your campaigns’ costs, so about half of results should land inside it at first.
- A channel without enough history (fewer than 5 results or 3 campaigns in 30 days) is left out of the estimate, and the card says which one and why.
- Results are counted the way the check-in card counts them, from the same numbers, so a check-in day never shows two figures.
- Conversions keep arriving for up to 7 days after a click on Meta and Google. Until then a check-in shows “late results still coming” and the verdict is a first read.
- The estimate assumes the budget you planned. If a campaign spent less, the verdict says how much of the plan it spent.
- A Continue keeps the original estimate: the extra days are not estimated.
- With no target set, the Budget step shows your recent cost per result and a Use it button. Nothing is filled in until you click it.
If something doesn't work
Is this a forecast from Facebook ads benchmarks?
No. Industry benchmarks average other businesses. Blackbox’s estimate uses only your own campaigns’ cost per result over the last 30 days, and the Results tab shows how often it landed in range for your brand.
The card says No estimate
The channel has too little history to go on. The card names the channel and what it needs; run a campaign there first, or pick a channel with results.
Why is the range so wide?
It is the spread of your own campaigns’ costs. It narrows as your costs get more alike and as checked campaigns show how far estimates were off.
The check-in says late results still coming
The day is over, but the platform can still credit conversions from earlier clicks. The number is final 7 days later.
I don’t see the track record line on suggestions
It shows once 5 of the brand’s new campaigns have been checked. Until then Plan’s Results tab lists them as they finish.
Previous: How to give your best audience its own Facebook ad set
Stuck at any step? Send us a message and we'll do it with you on a call. All of Level 4: Run it as an ad